By Ayobami Ife, Abeokuta
A fresh twist has emerged in the growing political tension within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun East, as a pro-government group -Sustainability Of Ogun State And Dapo Abiodun Legacy Beyond 2027 – has pushed back strongly against claims of “betrayal” in the ongoing contest for the 2027 senatorial ticket.
In a detailed rejoinder titled “Why Consensus Cannot Be Held Hostage by One Man,” the group dismissed allegations that Governor Dapo Abiodun undermined Senator Gbenga Daniel, insisting instead that the party’s internal process reflects majority will rather than personal imposition.
The statement was a response to an earlier commentary, “The Great Ogun East Betrayal,” which accused the governor of sidelining Daniel and manipulating a consensus arrangement in Ijebu-Ode to favour his preferred successor.
However, the rebuttal described that narrative as “dramatic but misleading,” arguing that no individual—regardless of political stature—should dominate party decisions.
“No one is indispensable,” the group said, stressing that the APC as an institution must outweigh individual ambitions. “Consensus must be built on collective agreement, not coercion or the influence of a single political figure.”
The Daily Crucible reports that central to the raging controversy is a recent stakeholders’ meeting held at Adeola Odutola Hall in Ijebu-Ode, where party leaders reportedly endorsed Abiodun’s senatorial ambition.
While critics have described the process as exclusionary—alleging that Daniel was locked out—the rejoinder acknowledged the optics but maintained that the outcome reflected the position of the majority of party officials, including local government leaders and executives. 
However, a statement issued on Friday by Dr Arabambi Abayomi( FBAU), Convener
Sustainability Of Ogun State And Dapo Abiodun Legacy Beyond 2027, argued that “Democracy is not about one man’s veto,” adding that the endorsement cannot be invalidated solely on the basis of one leader’s absence.
The pro-Abiodun group also challenged assertions that Daniel’s political structure remains decisive in Ogun East, questioning the durability of grassroots loyalty tied to past administrations.
It noted that shifting political dynamics, generational changes, and reliance on state-backed structures have diluted long-standing allegiances, warning against what it described as “the myth of permanent political dominance.”
The statement further cited past election outcomes, arguing that while margins have been tight, Abiodun has demonstrated electoral strength, including securing victory in the 2023 governorship race despite strong opposition.
Beyond the immediate dispute, the group warned against what it called the dangerous precedent of yielding to political pressure or threats of defection.
It argued that allowing any individual to dictate outcomes would weaken party cohesion and undermine internal democracy.
“If every aspirant resorts to brinkmanship, the party risks long-term instability,” the statement said.
Push for Transparent Primaries
Despite defending the endorsement process, the group ultimately called for a transparent primary election to resolve the dispute, urging all contenders to submit to the will of party delegates.
“If Daniel wins, he should be supported. If Abiodun wins, the same applies. That is the essence of democracy,” it stated.
The unfolding rift underscores deeper divisions within Ogun APC ahead of 2027, with both camps framing the contest as critical to the party’s future in the state.
Observers say the outcome could either consolidate party unity or widen fractures, depending on how leaders manage the competing ambitions.
For now, the battle lines remain drawn—with consensus, loyalty, and control of Ogun East at the heart of the political storm.
•Below is the statement in full…
*ONLY A FOOLISH MAN WITH HIS BARE HANDS WILL GO INTO A BATTLEFIELD WITH A MAN HOLDING GUN : A REJOINDER TO – THE GREAT OGUN EAST BETRAL*
Why Consensus Cannot Be Held Hostage by ONE MAN
*The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence that it is not utterly absurd.” – Bertrand Russell*
“In politics, shared madness is called consensus. But true consensus requires consent, not coercion from the opposition.” – Christopher Hitchens
There is something about Ogun State politics that never fails to produce drama. From the days of the old Western Region to the tumultuous fourth republic, the Gateway State has always been a theatre of ambitious men and the loyal crowds that follow them. Every election cycle, the same script plays out: alliances are formed, hands are shaken, and then, somewhere along the line, someone feels betrayed.
*The latest episode in this never-ending drama is the contest for the Ogun East senatorial ticket. And if you have been following the news, you would have read a piece titled “The Great Ogun East Betrayal” — a passionate, almost poetic defence of Senator Gbenga Daniel and a blistering attack on Governor Dapo Abiodun.*
It is a good read. Colourful. Dramatic. The kind of writing that makes you want to pick up a placard and march. But is it accurate? That is another question entirely.
Let me start by saying this: I have nothing against Senator Daniel. He is a seasoned politician. He was a governor. He is now a senator. That is no small feat. But the idea that Ogun East APC will collapse without him, that Governor Abiodun is committing political suicide by challenging his influence, and that the entire consensus process in Ijebu-Ode was a “sham” — these are claims that deserve a closer look. Because when you strip away the emotion and the dramatic language, what you are left with is a very different story.
*Beyond the political drama, there is a factual dispute missing from the original argument. Senator Daniel allegedly built his house on a 12-plot land without a Certificate of Occupancy. When authorities demanded documentation from all residents, everyone complied except the former governor, who reportedly produced only an interim court order. The house still stands because Governor Abiodun chose not to demolish it—an act of restraint, not betrayal. This context complicates any simple narrative of victimhood but obviously OGD acts depict that of an ungrateful and a serial predator who lacked respect for his benefactor.*
No One Is Indispensable — Not Even a Two-Term Governor
*We have a habit in this country of turning politicians into demigods. We convince ourselves that without a particular man, a particular zone, or a particular structure, the whole house will come crashing down. But history tells us otherwise.*
When Sam Nujoma stepped down in Namibia, people said the country would fall apart. It did not. When Nelson Mandela left office, many feared the ANC would disintegrate. It did not. Political parties are institutions. They are larger than any single individual. They outlive governors, senators, presidents. The APC is bigger than Senator Gbenga Daniel. And Ogun East is bigger than any one man’s ambition.
*The original article speaks of Daniel’s “formidable structure” and “unmatched grassroots loyalty.” But here is a question the author does not ask: who has been feeding that structure for the past three years? Much of the political machinery in Ogun State today runs on state resources. Local government chairmen, councillors, party executives — many of them draw their legitimacy and their livelihoods from the government in Abeokuta. Structures built on government patronage are not permanent. They can shift. They always do.*
And let us be honest — if Daniel’s grip on the grassroots is as absolute as claimed, why was he unable to rally his loyalists to resist the endorsement at Ijebu-Ode? Why did those local government chairmen and party officials, many of whom are from Ogun East and answer to their people, overwhelmingly back Abiodun? The uncomfortable answer is that Daniel’s influence, while significant, is not as untouchable as his publicity machine wants you to believe.
*The Numbers Need to Be Read Carefully.*
*The author leans heavily on election results. In 2019, Abiodun won by a slim margin of about 19,000 votes. In 2023, he won by a 2.2 per cent margin against Adebutu. The argument is that without Daniel’s structure, those narrow wins become losses. It sounds convincing. But let us slow down.*
*In 2019, Abiodun was a political underdog running against the formidable Amosun machine. That he won at all was remarkable. In 2023, he faced Adebutu — a man from Ogun East who poured significant resources into that election and commanded home advantage. Abiodun still won. Narrowly, yes. But he won.*
What the author does not mention is that in 2023, Daniel was on the ballot as Senator. That means he had every incentive to mobilise his structure for his own election, not necessarily for Abiodun’s. People came out to vote for Daniel. But we cannot assume that those same people voted for Abiodun for Governor. In fact, there is evidence to suggest that many voters in Ogun East split their tickets — voting Daniel for Senate and Adebutu for Governor. That is the problem with assuming that Daniel’s votes automatically transfer to Abiodun. They do not.
*There is also something the author overlooks: voter fatigue. Daniel was Governor from 2003 to 2011. That is a long time ago. A young person in Ogun East who was ten years old when Daniel left office is now twenty-five. That person has lived most of their adult life without Daniel in power. They owe him nothing. Political loyalty fades over time. It always does. The idea that Daniel’s grassroots appeal is “unmatched” and permanent ignores the simple fact that generations change and loyalties shift.*
What Really Happened at Adeola Odutola Hall?
*Let us talk about the meeting itself. The original article describes it as a “jaw-dropping act of brazen impunity” and a “kangaroo endorsement.” Strong words. But let us think carefully about what actually happened.*
*The meeting was attended by local government chairmen, councillors, and party executives. These are people who were either elected by their communities or appointed through party processes. They are not strangers. They are the party’s grassroots structure. Senator Daniel is one man. A powerful man, yes. But one man.*
*Are we really supposed to believe that the collective voice of dozens of party officials counts for nothing because one senior figure was locked out? That is not how democracy works. Democracy is not about one man’s veto. It is about the majority. If the majority of party officials in Ogun East have decided to back Governor Abiodun, that is their right. It may not be wise. It may not be strategic. But it is not a coup. It is not a betrayal. It is the party exercising its internal democracy.*
Now, locking out Senator Daniel was a mistake according to his club of friends, I will say that plainly. It was their poor optics and avoidable. They gave the impression of a rigged game. But using that as a weapon to argue that the entire consensus is invalid, that the Governor is doomed, and that the party is heading for catastrophe — that is an overreaction. A bad door policy does not make the endorsement illegitimate.
*The Tinubu Argument Is Speculative.*
*The author claims that Abiodun is defying President Tinubu’s “explicit directive” to favour experienced legislators. This is a bold claim. But has the President said this publicly? Has he named Daniel as his preferred candidate? No. That is speculation dressed as fact.*
President Tinubu is a smart politician. He values loyalty and delivery above all else. Governor Abiodun delivered Ogun State for Tinubu in 2023 against significant odds. That is not nothing. The President is not going to throw a sitting Governor who secured his victory under the bus for a Senator, no matter how experienced. That is not how Tinubu operates. He rewards those who stand by him. Abiodun has stood by him.
If the President eventually weighs in, that is his prerogative. But until then, we should stop putting words in his mouth.
*Who Is Really Putting the Seat at Risk?*
*The author warns that forcing Abiodun on Ogun East will gift the seat to the opposition. That is a genuine concern. A divided party is a losing party. No argument there.*
*But let us flip the question. If the party bends to Daniel’s every demand because he threatens to defect or sabotage the ticket, what message does that send? It tells every ambitious politician that the way to get what you want is to hold a gun to the party’s head. That is a dangerous precedent. It weakens the party in the long run.*
Let’s not pretend history doesn’t exist. Daniel has always played both sides. In 2023, he picked up nomination forms from both the APC and the PDP — just in case. That tells you everything about where his loyalties lie. The man looks out for himself, not any party. And part of his current desperation is simply that the new electoral act makes that kind of double-game much harder to pull off.
*Here’s the irony: when it was someone else’s turn to step aside, the Governor personally begged the incumbent, Lekan Mustafa, to make way for Daniel. And Mustafa? He didn’t fight. Didn’t cause a scene. He acted like an honourable party man and accepted it in good faith. But when the tables turned, Daniel had no problem undermining Abiodun — backing Ladi Adebutu just to ensure the Governor lost his re-election bid.*
*Nemesis has finally caught up with him. Abiodun unveiled a successor in an unprecedented inclusive way that was accepted by all in Ogun State — an initiative that has become a reference in Nigeria’s polity. The party, in appreciation, has endorsed him to go to the Senate. Daniel in his time split the party, overheated the polity, fought Obasanjo, fought Olurin, fought everyone — and lost out. The paradigm has shifted. Kudos to Gov Abiodun, the performing role model Governor of Ogun State.*
The real risk to APC in Ogun East is not a contested primary. It is a party that allows one man to hold the entire process hostage. If Daniel is as loyal as he claims — if he truly cares about the APC and the Renewed Hope Agenda — he will accept the decision of the majority, work for whoever emerges, and wait for another day. That is what party discipline means. That is what being a team player looks like.
*Let the Delegates Decide.*
*At the end of the day, this is not about Abiodun versus Daniel. It is about process. It is about whether the party will allow its internal democracy to function or whether it will cave to the loudest voice in the room.*
*Let the party hold a proper primary. Let the delegates vote. If Daniel wins, Abiodun must support him. That is democracy. If Abiodun wins, Daniel must do the same. That is also democracy. Anything short of that is not consensus. It is coercion.*
The original author ends with a plea for “respect, unity, and raw electoral reality.” I agree with that completely. But respect cannot be one-sided. Unity cannot mean one man gets everything he wants and everyone else falls in line. And raw electoral reality is this: no one has a divine right to any ticket. Not Daniel. Not Abiodun. Not anyone.
The APC in Ogun East will survive this. It has survived worse. The question is whether cooler heads will prevail or whether egos will get in the way. I hope for the former. But I have been around Nigerian politics long enough to know that the latter is always possible.
*As Machiavelli wrote centuries ago: “The promise given was a necessity of the past: the word broken is a necessity of the present.” The past demanded Daniel’s relevance. The present demands that the party choose its own path forward.*
*Finally “It is not changing into a lion that is hard; it is getting the tail of a lion” this is a parable about the difference between appearance and reality .The parables highlights the danger of empty imitation and emphasizes that true worth is proven through action, not simply adopting the appearance of strength.*
Action vs. Pretense:
It is easy to act like a leader (a lion) or dress like one, but demonstrating the competence, courage, and responsibility of a leader is the true challenge
Prince Dapo Abiodun has thus become an undisputed legend who in the last 7 years has demonstrated capacity, courage, competence and leadership with integrity to earned him the Endorsement as APC Ogun East Senatorial Candidate for 2027
Signed:
Dr Arabambi Abayomi( FBAU)
Convener
Sustainability Of Ogun State And Dapo Abiodun Legacy Beyond 2027
