…one thing is becoming increasingly difficult to dispute:
Iyabo Obasanjo is no longer merely a former senator attempting a political comeback. She is rapidly becoming one of the most visible political actors in Ogun State and a serious contender for Ogun Central in 2027. Her 15-year absence may be the headline her traducers want voters to remember
By Ayo Arowojolu
There is nothing wrong with political scrutiny. Indeed, democracy thrives on scrutiny, accountability and the interrogation of the records and ambitions of those seeking public office. But political analysis becomes less convincing when it spends so much time looking into the rear-view mirror that it loses sight of the road ahead.
That appears to be the central weakness in the recent political analysis published by OTN News under the headline, “The Politics of Return: After 15 Years, Does Iyabo Obasanjo Still Have the Mandate of Ogun Central?”
The question is legitimate. But it is also a question that should be answered by looking at Ogun Central in 2026, not by attempting to make a 2011 electoral verdict the permanent political obituary of Senator Prof. Iyabo Obasanjo.
The electorate will decide in January 2027. And, ultimately, that electorate is unlikely to vote on the basis of what happened 15 years ago. It will vote on what it sees, what it feels, what it remembers, what it expects and, perhaps most importantly, who it believes can best represent its interests.
That is where the political arithmetic surrounding Iyabo Obasanjo becomes particularly interesting.
There is no disputing the historical fact that Iyabo Obasanjo lost her Ogun Central Senate seat in 2011 owing largely for the internal fractures which afflicted the Peoples Democratic Party of that era.
There is equally no disputing that she has been away from the frontline of Nigerian electoral politics for many years. But neither fact automatically translates into a 2027 defeat. Elections are not cumulative punishment. A candidate does not enter every subsequent election carrying the numerical deficit of every previous election.
If that were the case, political comebacks would be impossible.
The more relevant question, therefore, is not simply: “Why did Iyabo lose in 2011?” It is: What is the political environment in Ogun Central today, and how is Iyabo Obasanjo positioned within it?
That is where the narrative begins to change. The Ogun Central of 2027 is not the Ogun Central of 2011.
The electorate has changed. Political parties have changed. Political alliances have changed. Social media has transformed political communication. Economic hardship has altered voters’ expectations. A new generation of voters has emerged. And, perhaps most significantly, the political identities of the candidates themselves have changed.
The senator who defeated Iyabo Obasanjo in 2011 is no longer the occupant of the seat. The incumbent today is Senator Shuaib Afolabi Salisu. Consequently, presenting 2027 primarily as a continuation of the 2011 contest is politically misleading.
This is not a rematch of 2011. It is a new election.
The More Important Question: Who Is Visible in Ogun Central Today?
If political presence is to be used as a measurement of electoral strength, then the question must be applied fairly to every candidate. Iyabo Obasanjo has spent the better part of 2026 doing something fundamental in electoral politics: showing up. She has taken her political engagement beyond the conventional metropolitan political circuit and into the hinterlands.
Her approach has been unmistakably grassroots. From polling units to wards, and from wards to local government areas, her political machinery has been deliberately structured around the six local governments that make up Ogun Central. That is not an accident.
What Iyabo currently possesses is something different: an opportunity to earn a new mandate. And she appears to be pursuing it with considerable seriousness. That distinction is fundamental. She is not claiming that the electorate owes her a return. She is attempting to convince the electorate to give her one. That is democracy
It is a recognition of one of the oldest truths in Nigerian electoral politics:
Elections are ultimately won where voters live—not where political narratives are manufactured. The emerging Iyaniwura structure is therefore not simply a collection of political enthusiasts operating from Abeokuta. It is an attempt to create a network of political contact at the grassroots. And that is precisely why the political establishment should not dismiss what is happening.
Where Is the Incumbent?
There is an uncomfortable question that deserves to be asked in the same spirit of “accountability” invoked by OTN News: Where is Senator Shuaib Salisu? The APC candidate is the incumbent senator representing Ogun Central. That should ordinarily confer a considerable advantage. He has the platform of the ruling party. He has incumbency.He has access to an existing political structure. He has the advantage of occupying the office he is seeking to retain. Yet, on the streets of Ogun Central, there appears to be a curious disconnect between incumbency and visibility.
Political visibility is not the same thing as performance, and absence from media headlines does not automatically mean political weakness.
But neither should silence be mistaken for overwhelming grassroots acceptance. If a serving senator is seeking another term, voters are entitled to ask what he has done, where he has been and what his campaign is saying to them. The question being whispered in some quarters—“Where is Salisu?”—may therefore be more politically significant than his supporters would like to admit.
The coming months will tell whether this apparent quietness is merely a strategic campaign style or evidence of a deeper disconnect with the electorate.
Iyabo’s 15-Year Absence May Not Be the Weakness Her Critics Imagine
This is perhaps the most fascinating aspect of the OTN argument. It repeatedly presents Iyabo’s 15-year absence from frontline Nigerian politics as though political relevance has an expiry date.
But there is another way of looking at it.
Iyabo Obasanjo did not spend those years hiding from public life. She returned substantially to academia and intellectual work, eventually attaining the rank of Professor in the United States. That is not political inactivity in the conventional sense.
It is personal development, intellectual development and professional accomplishment.
There is a significant difference between being a professional politician and being a professional in politics. Iyabo’s political biography is much closer to the latter. She did not spend 15 years desperately looking for another political office. She built herself. She pursued scholarship. She expanded her international exposure. She developed expertise. She became a professor. And now she is bringing that experience back into Nigerian public life.
There is therefore a compelling counter-argument to the “where was she?” narrative:
She was building herself. And perhaps the more relevant question is:
What has she come back with?
The Obasanjo Factor Is Not Enough—But It Is Not Nothing
The OTN analysis correctly warns against assuming that a famous surname automatically delivers an election.
That is true. But it would be equally intellectually dishonest to pretend that political pedigree has no electoral relevance. Iyabo Obasanjo possesses something many aspirants spend decades trying to build: a recognisable public identity. She is a former senator.
She is a former commissioner. She has chaired a major Senate committee. She has an established academic profile.
She has national recognition. She has international exposure. And, unlike many politicians who become visible only when an election approaches, she already possesses a public profile that transcends the immediate contest.
The real question, therefore, is not whether the Obasanjo name can win an election.
It cannot do that by itself. The question is whether that name, combined with grassroots mobilisation, personal visibility, experience, intellectual credentials and a compelling political message, can produce an electoral coalition. That is a much more difficult proposition for her opponents to dismiss.
The Iyaniwura Strategy Is About Rebuilding Political Memory
There is another important dimension that deserves attention.
Iyabo is not simply asking voters to remember 2007. She is creating new memories. Every community visitation. Every ward engagement.
Every local government meeting. Every consultation. Every interaction with traditional, community and political stakeholders. Every coordinator recruited. Every conversation with voters. These gradually construct a new political identity. That is how political memory works.
A politician who has been absent can become present again. And once presence is established, the political conversation changes from:
“Where has she been?” to: “What is she saying now?”
That is precisely the transition Iyabo’s campaign appears to be making.
The Defection Narrative Cuts Both Ways
OTN News raises reports of some individuals allegedly leaving the Iyaniwura structure for the APC candidate. That is legitimate political material—if independently established. But political defections are hardly a one-way phenomenon. If one or two coordinators leave one campaign, that does not automatically invalidate the structure. Political campaigns are fluid. People move. Alliances shift.
Interests change.
New people join. Old supporters leave. What matters electorally is not whether every single coordinator remains permanently loyal.
What matters is whether the overall organisation continues to expand, whether it reaches voters and whether it can translate mobilisation into votes. That is the real test. And that test will not be settled by newspaper articles.
It will be settled at polling units.
The Strongest Iyabo Argument May Actually Be the Weakness of Her Opponent
This is where the 2027 contest becomes particularly intriguing. Iyabo Obasanjo does not have to persuade voters that she is a perfect politician.
She needs to persuade them that she is the better choice. That distinction is important. If voters compare a former senator with a serving senator, they are likely to ask different questions. For Iyabo: What did you do before, and what will you do differently now? For Salisu: What have you done with the mandate you already have?
That second question can be considerably more dangerous for an incumbent. A challenger is selling possibility. An incumbent is defending a record.
And by the time Ogun Central voters approach the 2027 election, the campaign will increasingly become a referendum on that record.
Visibility Is Becoming a Political Currency
There is also something changing rapidly in contemporary Nigerian politics.
Visibility matters.
Not manufactured visibility. Not simply billboards and newspaper advertisements.
Human visibility.
The politician voters see. The politician who enters their communities. The politician whose representatives they encounter. The politician whose message reaches them repeatedly.
The politician whose name is discussed in markets, wards, villages, churches, community meetings, radio conversations and social media. On this score, Iyabo appears to understand the assignment. She has begun early.
She has gone to the grassroots. She has activated structures. She has deliberately taken the contest away from the exclusive control of political elites. That may prove to be one of her biggest strategic advantages.
From “Return” to “Resurrection” of Political Influence
Perhaps OTN News has inadvertently framed the wrong question. It asks whether Iyabo still has the mandate.
She does not. Nobody has the 2027 mandate yet.
Not Iyabo. Not Salisu. Not anybody. The mandate belongs to the voters.
What Iyabo currently possesses is something different: an opportunity to earn a new mandate. And she appears to be pursuing it with considerable seriousness. That distinction is fundamental. She is not claiming that the electorate owes her a return. She is attempting to convince the electorate to give her one. That is democracy.
January 2027 Could Become the Ultimate Rebuttal
Ultimately, all the commentaries, editorials, campaign materials, accusations and counter-accusations will disappear into history. The ballot will remain.
For Iyabo Obasanjo, January 2027 represents the ultimate test. If she loses, her opponents will say the 15-year absence mattered.
If she wins, the same result will demonstrate that political relevance is not permanently extinguished by electoral defeat or absence. And if she wins convincingly, the narrative will have to change completely. It would mean that Ogun Central did not merely remember Iyabo Obasanjo. It chose her again. That is why the current grassroots mobilisation should not be dismissed as political noise. It is an attempt to build an electoral coalition from the bottom up. And perhaps the most significant feature of the emerging contest is that Iyabo Obasanjo appears to understand something her detractors may be underestimating: The election will not be won in newspaper columns. It will not be won by reminding voters endlessly of 2011. It will not be won by mudslinging. It will not be won by political intimidation. It will be won by convincing voters. It will be won through organisation. It will be won through visibility. It will be won through credibility. And, ultimately, it will be won through votes.
For now, therefore, the verdict is still out.
But one thing is becoming increasingly difficult to dispute:
Iyabo Obasanjo is no longer merely a former senator attempting a political comeback. She is rapidly becoming one of the most visible political actors in Ogun State and a serious contender for Ogun Central in 2027. Her 15-year absence may be the headline her traducers want voters to remember. But her grassroots return may become the story voters actually remember. And if her expanding political machinery succeeds in converting that visibility into votes across the six local government areas of Ogun Central, January 2027 could provide the most definitive rebuttal of all. The electorate will speak. And when it does, every political narrative—supportive or hostile—will have to bow to the ballot.
•Ayo Arowojolu, a Communication Strategy Expert and an avid watcher of Ogun politics, wrote in from Abeokuta
•Opinions, positions or thoughts expressed here are personal and strictly of the writer/author and do not represent the views of The Daily Crucible.
